Determinants of the degree of fiscal sustainability

Antonio Afonso, José Alves and José Carlos Coelho

International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2025, vol. 30, issue 2, 1190-1205

Abstract: We assess the link between fiscal sustainability coefficients, namely the responses of the primary government balance and the global government balance to the debt‐to‐GDP ratio, and the response of government revenues to government expenditures. For 22 OECD developed countries we use annual data between 1950 and 2019. Other determinants of fiscal responses are also studied in the context of quantile regressions. We find that the output gap contributes to increasing fiscal sustainability by positively influencing the responsiveness of the primary and global government balances; and the responses of the primary and global government balances to the debt ratio and the response of government revenues to government expenditures depend on the level of the debt ratio. In addition, from the quantile analysis, the influence of the response of government revenues to government expenditures is negative and increasing over the deciles, confirming the existence of a negative cross‐relationship between the fiscal sustainability coefficients.

Date: 2025
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https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2960

Related works:
Working Paper: Determinants of the Degree of Fiscal Sustainability (2023)
Working Paper: Determinants of the degree of fiscal sustainability (2023)
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