Determinants of Dividend Payout Policy: More Evidence From Emerging Markets of G20 Bloc

Wagner Dantas de Souza Junior, Mohamed Mehdi Hijazi and Tarcísio Pedro da Silva

International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2025, vol. 30, issue 4, 4113-4124

Abstract: The purpose of this article is to examine the key factors influencing dividend payout policy in emerging markets, using a quantitative approach with a sample of 938 firms and 19,698 firm‐year observations. The study considers dividends, and share repurchases as elements of payout, analysing the effect of earnings, taxes, debt, size and free cash flow on payout decisions through an OLS Panel Data regression model and a GMM‐AB model for robustness. Findings indicate that taxes, size and leverage positively influence payout, while free cash flow and earnings show negative associations. Notably, free cash flow exhibits the largest impact on payout variations, supporting asymmetric information theories like bird‐in‐hand, signalling and dividend life cycle theories, where payout responds to investor risk aversion. The paper's originality lies in its 21‐year analysis of 11 emerging economies, identifying that, unlike developed markets where payout is shaped by agency conflicts, emerging markets emphasise reducing investor risk aversion. The findings also challenge existing financial theories by demonstrating a complementary relationship between investment and debt policies, with a negative correlation between cash flow and dividends and a positive one between leverage and dividends.

Date: 2025
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