DISENTANGLING DEMAND AND SUPPLY SHOCKS IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET: HOW TO CHECK SIGN RESTRICTIONS IN STRUCTURAL VARS

Helmut Lütkepohl and Aleksei Netšunajev

Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2014, vol. 29, issue 3, 479-496

Abstract: SUMMARY Sign restrictions have become increasingly popular for identifying shocks in structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models. So far there are no techniques for validating the shocks identified via such restrictions. Although in an ideal setting the sign restrictions specify shocks of interest, sign restrictions may be invalidated by measurement errors, data adjustments or omitted variables. We model changes in the volatility of the shocks via a Markov switching (MS) mechanism and use this device to give the data a chance to object to sign restrictions. The approach is illustrated by considering a small model for the market of crude oil. Earlier findings that oil supply shocks explain only a very small fraction of movements in the price of oil are confirmed and it is found that the importance of aggregate demand shocks for oil price movements has declined since the mid 1980s. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (41)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/

Related works:
Working Paper: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market: How to Check Sign Restrictions in Structural VARs (2012)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:japmet:v:29:y:2014:i:3:p:479-496

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www3.intersci ... e.jsp?issn=0883-7252

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Applied Econometrics is currently edited by M. Hashem Pesaran

More articles in Journal of Applied Econometrics from John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().