ROUNDING, FOCAL POINT ANSWERS AND NONRESPONSE TO SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY QUESTIONS

Kristin Kleinjans and Arthur van Soest ()

Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2014, vol. 29, issue 4, 567-585

Abstract: SUMMARY We develop a panel data model explaining answers to subjective probabilities about binary events and estimate it using data from the Health and Retirement Study on six such probabilities. The model explicitly accounts for several forms of ‘reporting behavior’: rounding, focal point ‘50%’ answers and item nonresponse. We find observed and unobserved heterogeneity in the tendencies to report rounded values or a focal answer, explaining persistency in 50% answers over time. Focal 50% answers matter for some of the probabilities. Incorporating reporting behavior does not have a large effect on the estimated distribution of the genuine subjective probabilities. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Date: 2014
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (77)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:japmet:v:29:y:2014:i:4:p:567-585

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www3.intersci ... e.jsp?issn=0883-7252

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Applied Econometrics is currently edited by M. Hashem Pesaran

More articles in Journal of Applied Econometrics from John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().