Testing the rationality of expectations of qualitative outcomes

Carlos Madeira

Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2018, vol. 33, issue 6, 837-852

Abstract: This article provides an adequate statistic for testing the rationality of point predictions of categorical outcomes under a subjective median or mode assumption. The test improves upon previous approaches by accounting for all the required moment inequalities and their respective covariance matrix in a single statistic. Monte Carlo simulations show that the test has an improved Type I error, especially in cases with multiple modes. Applying these tests to a dataset with parents' and students' predictions of school scores, I find that respondents are biased towards expecting higher grades and that students' expectations are correlated with the time of study.

Date: 2018
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:japmet:v:33:y:2018:i:6:p:837-852

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