Inferring financial bubbles from option data

Robert Jarrow () and Simon Sai Man Kwok

Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2021, vol. 36, issue 7, 1013-1046

Abstract: Financial bubbles arise when the underlying asset's market price deviates from its fundamental value. Unlike other bubble tests that use time series data and assume a reduced‐form price process, we infer the existence of bubbles nonparametrically using option price data. Under no‐arbitrage and acknowledging data constraints, we can partially identify asset price bubbles using a cross section of European option prices. In the empirical analysis, we obtain interval estimates of price bubbles embedded in the S&P 500 Index. The estimated index bubbles are then used to construct profitable momentum trading strategies that consistently outperform a buy‐and‐hold trading strategy.

Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2862

Related works:
Working Paper: Inferring Financial Bubbles from Option Data (2021)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:japmet:v:36:y:2021:i:7:p:1013-1046

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www3.intersci ... e.jsp?issn=0883-7252

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Applied Econometrics is currently edited by M. Hashem Pesaran

More articles in Journal of Applied Econometrics from John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().