Forecasting GDP in Europe with textual data

Luca Barbaglia, Sergio Consoli and Sebastiano Manzan

Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2024, vol. 39, issue 2, 338-355

Abstract: We evaluate the informational content of news‐based sentiment indicators for forecasting gross domestic product (GDP) and other macroeconomic variables of the five major European economies. Our dataset includes over 27 million articles for 26 major newspapers in five different languages. The evidence indicates that these sentiment indicators are significant predictors to forecast macroeconomic variables and their predictive content is robust to controlling for other indicators available to forecasters in real time.

Date: 2024
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