The shale oil boom and the US economy: Spillovers and time‐varying effects

Hilde Bjørnland () and Julia Skretting

Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2024, vol. 39, issue 6, 1000-1020

Abstract: We provide new evidence that the transmission of oil price shocks to the US economy has changed with the shale oil boom. To show this, we develop a time‐varying parameter factor‐augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model with a large data environment of state‐level, industry, and aggregate US data. The model effectively captures potential spillovers between oil and non‐oil industries, as well as variation over time. Specified in this way, we find that investment, income, industrial production, and (non‐oil) employment in most oil‐producing and some manufacturing‐intensive US states increase following an oil‐specific shock—effects that were not present before the shale oil boom.

Date: 2024
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https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.3059

Related works:
Working Paper: The shale oil boom and the U.S. economy: Spillovers and time-varying effects (2019)
Working Paper: The shale oil boom and the US economy: Spillovers and time-varying effects (2019)
Working Paper: The Shale Oil Boom and the U.S. Economy: Spillovers and Time-Varying Effects (2018)
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