On Forecasting Conflict in the Sudan: 2009–2012

David Bessler (), Shahriar Kibriya, Junyi Chen and Edwin Price

Journal of Forecasting, 2016, vol. 35, issue 2, 179-188

Abstract: This paper considers univariate and multivariate models to forecast monthly conflict events in the Sudan over the out‐of‐sample period 2009–2012. The models used to generate these forecasts were based on a specification from a machine learning algorithm fit to 2000–2008 monthly data. The model that includes previous month's wheat price performs better than a similar model which does not include past wheat prices (the univariate model). Both models did not perform well in forecasting conflict in a neighborhood of the 2012 ‘Heglig crisis’. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Date: 2016
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Working Paper: On Forecasting Conflict in Sudan: 2009-2012 (2014)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:jforec:v:35:y:2016:i:2:p:179-188

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