Validating Policy‐Induced Economic Change Using Sequential General Equilibrium SAMs

Manuel Alejandro Cardenete, M. Carmen Lima and Ferran Sancho

Journal of Forecasting, 2017, vol. 36, issue 3, 291-304

Abstract: We present a novel sequential approach that explores the capacity of Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to track down policy‐induced economic changes and their ability to generate contrastable data. We use an empirical Social accounting matrix (SAM) of the region of Andalusia, in the south of Spain, to construct an initial CGE model. This model is then perturbed with a set of policy shocks related to EU Structural Funds invested into Andalusia. These shocks are accompanied by some parameter adjustments that pick up the main external changes not explained by the model. We generate a sequence of model‐produced virtual SAMs. We then compare the last virtual SAM in the sequence with a new available empirical SAM. This allows us to check relatedness, for the same year, between the model produced and the empirical SAMs. The results show a good fit to the empirical data, providing further support to the CGE modelling tool. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Date: 2017
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Related works:
Working Paper: VALIDATING POLICY INDUCED ECONOMIC CHANGE USING SEQUENTIAL GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM SAMs (2012)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:jforec:v:36:y:2017:i:3:p:291-304

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