Long‐term streamflow forecasting using artificial neural network based on preprocessing technique

Fang‐Fang Li, Zhi‐Yu Wang and Jun Qiu

Journal of Forecasting, 2019, vol. 38, issue 3, 192-206

Abstract: Artificial neural network (ANN) combined with signal decomposing methods is effective for long‐term streamflow time series forecasting. ANN is a kind of machine learning method utilized widely for streamflow time series, and which performs well in forecasting nonstationary time series without the need of physical analysis for complex and dynamic hydrological processes. Most studies take multiple factors determining the streamflow as inputs such as rainfall. In this study, a long‐term streamflow forecasting model depending only on the historical streamflow data is proposed. Various preprocessing techniques, including empirical mode decomposition (EMD), ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and discrete wavelet transform (DWT), are first used to decompose the streamflow time series into simple components with different timescale characteristics, and the relation between these components and the original streamflow at the next time step is analyzed by ANN. Hybrid models EMD‐ANN, EEMD‐ANN and DWT‐ANN are developed in this study for long‐term daily streamflow forecasting, and performance measures root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) indicate that the proposed EEMD‐ANN method performs better than EMD‐ANN and DWT‐ANN models, especially in high flow forecasting.

Date: 2019
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:jforec:v:38:y:2019:i:3:p:192-206

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