Oil financialization and volatility forecast: Evidence from multidimensional predictors

Yan‐ran Ma, Qiang Ji and Jiaofeng Pan

Journal of Forecasting, 2019, vol. 38, issue 6, 564-581

Abstract: Using the generalized dynamic factor model, this study constructs three predictors of crude oil price volatility: a fundamental (physical) predictor, a financial predictor, and a macroeconomic uncertainty predictor. Moreover, an event‐triggered predictor is constructed using data extracted from Google Trends. We construct GARCH‐MIDAS (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity–mixed‐data sampling) models combining realized volatility with the predictors to predict oil price volatility at different forecasting horizons. We then identify the predictive power of the realized volatility and the predictors by the model confidence set (MCS) test. The findings show that, among the four indexes, the financial predictor has the most predictive power for crude oil volatility, which provides strong evidence that financialization has been the key determinant of crude oil price behavior since the 2008 global financial crisis. In addition, the fundamental predictor, followed by the financial predictor, effectively forecasts crude oil price volatility in the long‐run forecasting horizons. Our findings indicate that the different predictors can provide distinct predictive information at the different horizons given the specific market situation. These findings have useful implications for market traders in terms of managing crude oil price risk.

Date: 2019
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:jforec:v:38:y:2019:i:6:p:564-581

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