Using accounting‐based information on young firms to predict bankruptcy

Christian Lohmann and Thorsten Ohliger

Journal of Forecasting, 2019, vol. 38, issue 8, 803-819

Abstract: This study analyzes the nonlinear relationships between accounting‐based key performance indicators and the probability that the firm in question will become bankrupt or not. The analysis focuses particularly on young firms and examines whether these nonlinear relationships are affected by a firm's age. The analysis of nonlinear relationships between various predictors of bankruptcy and their interaction effects is based on a structured additive regression model and on a comprehensive data set on German firms. The results of this analysis provide empirical evidence that a firm's age has a considerable effect on how accounting‐based key performance indicators can be used to predict the likelihood that a firm will go bankrupt. More specifically, the results show that there are differences between older firms and young firms with respect to the nonlinear effects of the equity ratio, the return on assets, and the sales growth on their probability of bankruptcy.

Date: 2019
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https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2586

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:jforec:v:38:y:2019:i:8:p:803-819

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