Central bank information and private‐sector expectations

Jochen Güntner

Journal of Forecasting, 2022, vol. 41, issue 7, 1372-1385

Abstract: Recent advances in the literature allow disentangling the pure information component from the interest rate component of US monetary policy surprises. This article quantifies the information revealed around FOMC announcements using forecast revisions from Blue Chip Economic Indicators. Following a typical central bank information shock, survey participants revise their now‐ and short‐term forecasts of both real GDP growth and the GDP deflator upwards, consistent with a shift of the aggregate demand curve along the aggregate supply curve. While now‐ and forecast revisions in real GDP growth are driven by negative central bank information shocks, those in the GDP deflator respond broadly symmetrically to good and bad news.

Date: 2022
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https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2879

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Working Paper: Central bank information and private-sector Expectations (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:jforec:v:41:y:2022:i:7:p:1372-1385

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