A new PM2.5 concentration forecasting system based on AdaBoost‐ensemble system with deep learning approach

Zhongfei Li, Kai Gan, Shaolong Sun and Shouyang Wang

Journal of Forecasting, 2023, vol. 42, issue 1, 154-175

Abstract: A reliable and efficient forecasting system can be used to warn the general public against the increasing PM2.5 concentration. This paper proposes a novel AdaBoost‐ensemble technique based on a hybrid data preprocessing‐analysis strategy, with the following contributions: (i) a new decomposition strategy is proposed based on the hybrid data preprocessing‐analysis strategy, which combines the merits of two popular decomposition algorithms and has been proven to be a promising decomposition strategy; (ii) the long short‐term memory (LSTM), as a powerful deep learning forecasting algorithm, is applied to individually forecast the decomposed components, which can effectively capture the long‐short patterns of complex time series; and (iii) a novel AdaBoost‐LSTM ensemble technique is then developed to integrate the individual forecasting results into the final forecasting results, which provides significant improvement to the forecasting performance. To evaluate the proposed model, a comprehensive and scientific assessment system with several evaluation criteria, comparison models, and experiments is designed. The experimental results indicate that our developed hybrid model considerably surpasses the compared models in terms of forecasting precision and statistical testing and that its excellent forecasting performance can guide in developing effective control measures to decrease environmental contamination and prevent the health issues caused by a high PM2.5 concentration.

Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:jforec:v:42:y:2023:i:1:p:154-175

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