A comparison of methods for forecasting value at risk and expected shortfall of cryptocurrencies

Carlos Trucíos () and James W. Taylor

Journal of Forecasting, 2023, vol. 42, issue 4, 989-1007

Abstract: Several procedures to forecast daily risk measures in cryptocurrency markets have been recently implemented in the literature. Among them, long‐memory processes, procedures taking into account the presence of extreme observations, procedures that include more than a single regime, and quantile regression‐based models have performed substantially better than standard methods in terms of forecasting risk measures. Those procedures are revisited in this paper, and their value at risk and expected shortfall forecasting performance are evaluated using recent Bitcoin and Ethereum data that include periods of turbulence due to the COVID‐19 pandemic, the third halving of Bitcoin, and the Lexia class action. Additionally, in order to mitigate the influence of model misspecification and enhance the forecasting performance obtained by individual models, we evaluate the use of several forecast combining strategies. Our results, based on a comprehensive backtesting exercise, reveal that, for Bitcoin, there is no single procedure outperforming all other models, but for Ethereum, there is evidence showing that the GAS model is a suitable alternative for forecasting both risk measures. We found that the combining methods were not able to outperform the better of the individual models.

Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:jforec:v:42:y:2023:i:4:p:989-1007

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