The benefit of the Covid‐19 pandemic on global temperature projections

Pierre Rostan and Alexandra Rostan

Journal of Forecasting, 2023, vol. 42, issue 8, 2079-2098

Abstract: This paper illustrates the benefit of the Covid‐19 pandemic on global temperature projections. Global temperature projections are obtained by forecasting Earth's temperature anomalies time series with spectral analysis. Time series of Earth's Temperature Anomalies of the Globe are collected by NASA/GISS and in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres by the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia and Hadley Centre. Spectral analysis aims at unveiling temperature anomalies time series by transforming them into simplified time series after decomposition, extrapolating information nested in these simplified series and rebuilding the forecasted time series. Earth's temperature anomalies are forecasted until 2100. Two sets of forecasts are generated, one with historical data including the Covid‐19 pandemic (from 1880 up to 2021 with NASA/GISS data or from 1850 up to 2022 with East Anglia and Hadley Centre data) and one excluding the Covid‐19 pandemic up to 2019. With the sets of data not including the pandemic, forecasts show temperature anomalies skyrocketing and bringing Earth's global warming at alarming levels in Northern and Southern Hemispheres. With the set of data including the pandemic, forecasts are reverting showing lower alarming levels by the end of the century, in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres and globally.

Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:jforec:v:42:y:2023:i:8:p:2079-2098

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