Downturns and changes in the yield slope

Mirko Abbritti, Juan Equiza-Goñi, Antonio Moreno and Tommaso Trani

Journal of Forecasting, 2024, vol. 43, issue 3, 673-701

Abstract: We show that the slope of the sovereign yield curve predicts future economic activity not only through its level but also through its changes (or differences) over time. Our results with US data show that the additional inclusion of the changes of the yield slope in the traditional regressions significantly increases the explanatory power of the yield curve. Through the yield slope decomposition, we find that positive changes in both the risk‐neutral spread and the term premium increase the likelihood of recession in the next 3 or 12 months. Estimated linear equations that directly forecast economic activity confirm the predictive power of both components in the medium run. These predictive equations also identify the term premium as the relevant component of yield slope changes for medium‐run (3–12 months) forecasts. Our out‐of‐sample exercises show that the empirical models including both the level and the differences of the slope perform better than the models including only the yield slope level.

Date: 2024
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https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3047

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:jforec:v:43:y:2024:i:3:p:673-701

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