Forecasting healthcare service volumes with machine learning algorithms

Dong‐Hui Yang, Ke‐Hui Zhu and Ruo‐Nan Wang

Journal of Forecasting, 2024, vol. 43, issue 6, 2358-2377

Abstract: As an efficacious solution to remedying the imbalance of medical resources, the online medical platform has burgeoned expeditiously. Apt allotment of medical resources on the medical platform can facilitate patients in reasonably selecting physicians and time slots, coordinating doctors' clinical arrangements, and generating precise projections of medical platform service volume to enhance patient satisfaction and alleviate physicians' workload. To this end, grounded in the data‐driven method, this paper assembles an exhaustive feature set encompassing hospital features, physician features, and patient features. Through feature selection, appropriate features are screened, and machine learning algorithms are leveraged to accurately forecast doctors' online consultation volume. Subsequently, to glean the influence relationship between online medical services and offline medical services, this paper introduces features of offline medical services such as hospital registration volume and regional gross domestic product (GDP) to solve the prediction of offline medical service volume using online medical information. The findings signify that online data feature prediction can pinpoint superior machine learning models for online medical platform service volume (with the optimal accuracy up to 96.89%). Online features exert a positive effect on predicting offline medical service volume, but the accuracy declines to some degree (the optimal accuracy is 73%). Physicians with favorable reputations on the online platform are more susceptible to attain higher offline appointment volumes when online consultation volume is a vital feature impacting offline appointment volume.

Date: 2024
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