Traffic flow prediction: A 3D adaptive multi‐module joint modeling approach integrating spatial‐temporal patterns to capture global features

Zain Ul Abideen, Xiaodong Sun and Chao Sun

Journal of Forecasting, 2024, vol. 43, issue 7, 2766-2791

Abstract: The challenges in citywide traffic flow are intricate, encompassing various factors like temporal and spatial dependencies, holidays, and weather. Despite the complexity, there are still research gaps in effectively incorporating these spatio‐temporal relations through deep learning. Addressing these gaps is crucial for tackling issues such as traffic congestion, public safety, and efficient traffic management within cities. This paper underscores notable research gaps, including the development of models capable of handling both local and global traffic flow patterns, integrating multi‐modal data sources, and effectively managing spatio‐temporal dependencies. In this paper, we proposed a novel model named 3D spatial–temporal‐based adaptive modeling graph convolutional network (3D(STAMGCN)) that addresses for traffic flow data in better periodicity modeling. In contrast to earlier studies, 3D(STAMGCN) approaches the task of traffic flow prediction as a periodic residual learning problem. This is achieved by capturing the input variation between historical time segments and the anticipated output for future time segments. Forecasting traffic flow, as opposed to a direct approach, is significantly simpler when focusing on learning more stationary deviations. This, in turn, aids in the training of the model. Nevertheless, the networks enable residual generation at each time interval through learned variations between future conditions and their corresponding weekly observations. Consequently, this significantly contributes to achieving more accurate forecasts for multiple steps ahead. We executed extensive experiments on two real‐world datasets and compared the performance of our model to state‐of‐the‐art (SOTA) techniques.

Date: 2024
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https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3147

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