Forecasting Chinese Stock Market Volatility With Volatilities in Bond Markets

Likun Lei, Mengxi He, Yi Zhang and Yaojie Zhang

Journal of Forecasting, 2025, vol. 44, issue 2, 547-555

Abstract: In this paper, we investigate whether the bond markets contain important information that can improve the accuracy of stock market volatility forecasts in China. We use realized volatility (RV) implemented by different maturity treasury bond futures contracts to predict the Chinese stock market volatility. Our work is based on the heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) framework. Empirical results show that the volatility of treasury bond contracts with longer maturities (especially 10 years) has the best effect on predicting the Chinese stock market volatility, both in sample and out of sample. Two machine learning methods, the scaled principal component analysis (SPCA) and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (lasso), are also more effective than the HAR benchmark model's prediction. Finally, mean–variance investors can achieve substantial economic gains by allocating their investment portfolios based on volatility forecasts after introducing treasury bond futures volatility.

Date: 2025
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https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3215

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:jforec:v:44:y:2025:i:2:p:547-555

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