A Note: The CSCE cheddar cheese cash and futures price long‐term equilibrium relationship revisited
Cameron S. Thraen
Journal of Futures Markets, 1999, vol. 19, issue 2, 233-244
In the early 1990s, after four decades of relying on government mandated minimum price supports and public stockholding to achieve price risk management, the United States dairy industry is undertaking a shift to a market clearing equilibrium system. A potentially important component of this new structure is the development of an operational futures market for selected milk and dairy products. In June of 1993 the Coffee, Sugar, & Cocoa Exchange introduced a contract on Cheddar Cheese. As the production of cheese represents over one third of the use of raw milk in the United States, this contract has the potential of serving as an important price risk management tool. Using unit root and cointegration techniques, Fortenbery and Zapata studied the cheese cash‐futures relationship over the period June 1993–July 1995. They reach the conclusion that the cash and futures markets, during the period of their analysis, had not established an economic equilibrium relationship. F&Z raise the important question as to whether the cheddar cheese market is in some sense “slow” to develop or whether there something fundamentally amiss. The work of F&Z provides an important initial step toward understanding the cash–futures relationship. This research revisits the existence of a cointegrating relation using a much longer time period and additional time‐series statistical tests. The results of this study suggest that the data support the establishment of an equilibrium relationship in the cheese markets and therefore provide support for the use of the futures market as a price risk management tool by the dairy industry. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 233–244, 1999
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