Testing the martingale hypothesis for futures prices: Implications for hedgers

Cédric de Ville de Goyet, Geert Dhaene and Piet Sercu

Journal of Futures Markets, 2008, vol. 28, issue 11, 1040-1065

Abstract: The martingale hypothesis for futures prices is investigated using a nonparametric approach where it is assumed that the expected futures returns depend (nonparametrically) on a linear combination of predictors. We first collapse the predictors into a single‐index variable where the weights are identified up to scale, using the average derivative estimator proposed by T. Stoker (1986). We then use the Nadaraya–Watson kernel estimator to calculate (and visually depict) the relationship between the estimated index and the expected futures returns. We discuss implications of this finding for a noninfinitely risk‐averse hedger. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:1040–1065, 2008

Date: 2008
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:28:y:2008:i:11:p:1040-1065

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=0270-7314

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Futures Markets is currently edited by Robert I. Webb

More articles in Journal of Futures Markets from John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().