EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

A robust model of the convenience yield in the natural gas market

Thomas Volmer

Journal of Futures Markets, 2011, vol. 31, issue 11, 1011-1051

Abstract: This study advances the research on the convenience yield of natural gas. Econometric models confirm that air temperature is an important explanatory variable in addition to storage levels. Furthermore, an extended linear model shows that one has to account for a changing cost of physical storage in the spirit of Brennan ( 1958 ). Besides this, an alternative regime‐switching model for the convenience yield helps to put in perspective a prominent finding by Fama, and French ( 1987 ). That is, given binding capacity constraints for gas storage, the variance of the futures' basis will increase rather than decrease with the storage levels. Finally and most importantly, robustness tests demonstrate that the extended linear model produces the most viable forecasts and that these forecasts can help to amend the performance of reduced‐form models for the gas spot price. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark

Date: 2011
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:31:y:2011:i:11:p:1011-1051

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=0270-7314

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Futures Markets is currently edited by Robert I. Webb

More articles in Journal of Futures Markets from John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().

 
Page updated 2025-03-20
Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:31:y:2011:i:11:p:1011-1051