Sources of variation in holding returns for fed funds futures contracts

James Hamilton and Tatsuyoshi Okimoto

Journal of Futures Markets, 2011, vol. 31, issue 3, 205-229

Abstract: This study relates predictable gains from positions in fed funds futures contracts to violations of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates. Although evidence for predictable gains from positions in short‐horizon contracts is mixed, we find that gains in longer horizon contracts can be well described using Markov‐switching models, with predictability associated with particular episodes in which economic activity was weak and variability in the returns to these contracts was quite high. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 31:205–229, 2011

Date: 2011
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Working Paper: Sources of Variation in Holding Returns for Fed Funds Futures Contracts (2010)
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