Risk Premium in Electricity Prices: Evidence from the PJM Market
David B. Colwell and
Journal of Futures Markets, 2015, vol. 35, issue 8, 776-793
In this article, we construct a stochastic model for electricity spot prices, derive a pricing formula for electricity forward contracts, and specify risk premia inherent in such contracts. Our spot price model accounts for seasonality, mean‐reversion, and time‐varying jump intensity. Empirically, the model with a sinusoidal seasonal function, different mean‐reversion rates for the diffusion and jumps, and constant volatility is most appropriate among six different models for the United States market. The modeling approach leads us to investigate the stochastic risk premium due to both the diffusion and the jump components explicitly. The empirical results reveal that both risk premia are time‐varying and state‐dependent. The diffusion risk premium is negatively correlated with the diffusion level and fluctuates about zero, and the jump risk premium is negatively correlated with the jump level and always negative. In magnitude, the jump risk premium is much larger than the diffusion risk premium. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 35:776–793, 2015
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:35:y:2015:i:8:p:776-793
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=0270-7314
Access Statistics for this article
Journal of Futures Markets is currently edited by Robert I. Webb
More articles in Journal of Futures Markets from John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().