Return dynamics during periods of high speculation in a thinly traded commodity market

Martin T. Bohl and Martin Stefan

Journal of Futures Markets, 2020, vol. 40, issue 1, 145-159

Abstract: This article studies the effects of speculation in a thinly traded commodity futures market, paying particular attention to periods characterized by high‐speculative activity of long–short speculators. Using the speculation ratio as a daily measure for long–short speculation, we employ generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity regressions to study its impact on return dynamics. Our results for the Chicago Mercantile Exchange feeder cattle futures market suggest that futures returns are predominantly explained by fundamentals, but their volatility is significantly driven by the speculation ratio. This relationship holds for periods of high‐ and low‐speculative activity alike.

Date: 2020
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