Belief distortion near 52W high and low: Evidence from Indian equity options market

Sumit Saurav, Sobhesh Kumar Agarwalla and Jayanth Varma

Journal of Futures Markets, 2023, vol. 43, issue 11, 1531-1558

Abstract: We examine investors' behavioral biases and preferences in the options market near 52‐week high and low (52W‐H/L) using Indian options market data. We document that as the stock price approaches 52W high (low), the skewness of risk‐neutral density (RND), and out‐of‐the‐money (OTM) call volume decreases (increases), while OTM put volume increases (decreases). After crossing the 52W high (low), the skewness of RND and OTM call volume increases (decreases), while OTM put volume decreases (increases). The effects are economically large and significant. Our findings provide evidence consistent with the anchoring theory of belief distortion near 52W‐H/L. There is no evidence of preference distortion, contrary to what prospect theory predicts.

Date: 2023
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