Market‐wide overconfidence and stock returns

Qiang Chen, Yu Han and Ying Huang

Journal of Futures Markets, 2024, vol. 44, issue 1, 3-26

Abstract: In this paper, a novel measurement of overconfidence over the market is developed based on the size of ambiguity (the confidence of investors in information). The proposed measure of market‐wide overconfidence is consistent with the predictions motivated by prior literature. It has a significant negative association with the next‐month market excess return. Associations between the overconfidence measure and riskier portfolio returns behave stronger and last longer, implying a risk‐taking proclivity of overconfident investors.

Date: 2024
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https://doi.org/10.1002/fut.22462

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:44:y:2024:i:1:p:3-26

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