The Role of Policy on Commodity Markets: From the Perspective of Narrative News Based on NLP

Libo Yin, Jier Zhang, Hong Cao and Ying Li

Journal of Futures Markets, 2025, vol. 45, issue 11, 1871-1910

Abstract: Using a cutting‐edge natural language processing method, this study constructs the China narrative policy index (CNPI) to capture policy content, drawing on 10 authoritative government reports and official media sources and incorporating expert input to enhance thematic precision and relevance. On this basis, the study employs a ripple‐spreading network model to examine CNPI's impact on global commodity futures markets, revealing China's position in policy‐driven spillovers across both temporal and spatial dimensions. Through case analyses of the supply‐side reform and four sub‐policy themes, we validate CNPI's effectiveness in capturing policy content and highlight China's influence as a global policy transmitter.

Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1002/fut.70017

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:45:y:2025:i:11:p:1871-1910

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=0270-7314

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Futures Markets is currently edited by Robert I. Webb

More articles in Journal of Futures Markets from John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().