Predicting COVID‐19 Pandemic Endpoint in Some Sub‐Saharan African and European Countries

Saviour Worlanyo Akuamoah, John Coker Ayimah, David Yaro, Elikem Kofi Krampa and Awura Amma Adomaa Danso

Journal of Applied Mathematics, 2023, vol. 2023, issue 1

Abstract: In this study, a novel modified SIR model is presented with two control measures to predict the endpoint of COVID‐19, in top three sub‐Saharan African countries (South Africa, Ethiopia, and Kenya) including Ghana and top four European countries (France, Germany, UK, and Italy). The reproduction number’s sensitivity indices with regard to the model parameters were explicitly derived and then numerically evaluated. Numerical simulations of the suggested optimal control schemes in general showed a continuous result of decline at different anticipated extinction timelines. Another interesting observation was that in the simulation of sub‐Saharan African dynamics, it was observed that the use of personal protective equipment was more effective than the use of vaccination, whereas in Europe, the use of vaccination was more effective than personal protective equipment. From the simulations, the conclusion is that COVID‐19 will end before the 3rd year in Ghana, before the 6th year in Kenya, and before the 9th year in both Ethiopia and South Africa.

Date: 2023
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1155/2023/7882843

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:jnljam:v:2023:y:2023:i:1:n:7882843

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Journal of Applied Mathematics from John Wiley & Sons
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().