The efficacy and effect of racial profiling: A mathematical simulation approach

Jack Glaser
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Jack Glaser: University of California, Berkeley, Postal: University of California, Berkeley

Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 2006, vol. 25, issue 2, 395-416

Abstract: Racial profiling-the use of race, ethnicity, or national origin by law enforcement officials to make judgments of criminal suspicion-is assessed in terms of its effect on targeted populations and on law enforcement efficiency. A mathematical simulation, comparing multiple profiling and non-profiling scenarios, is employed. This analysis indicates that racial profiling exacerbates incarceration disparities between groups whether or not the groups differ in criminality rates, and that the long-term effects of profiling in terms of criminal captures depend on the calibration of profiling rates to criminality rates. The highest long-term criminal capture rates appear to occur when stop rate ratios match, or are slightly below, criminality rate ratios between groups. When the possibility of a deterrent effect is modeled, profiling appears to yield fewer criminal captures and have little or no crime reduction effect, and may even increase overall crime rates. © 2006 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management

Date: 2006
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:jpamgt:v:25:y:2006:i:2:p:395-416

DOI: 10.1002/pam.20178

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