Marriage: Cause or mere indicator of future earnings growth?

Ronald Mincy, Jennifer Hill and Marilyn Sinkewicz
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Ronald Mincy: Maurice V. Russell Professor, Social Policy and Social Work Practice, Columbia University, School of Social Work, Postal: Maurice V. Russell Professor, Social Policy and Social Work Practice, Columbia University, School of Social Work
Jennifer Hill: Associate Professor of Applied Statistics, New York University, Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, The Steinhardt School of Culture, Education, and Human Development, Postal: Associate Professor of Applied Statistics, New York University, Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, The Steinhardt School of Culture, Education, and Human Development
Marilyn Sinkewicz: Assistant Professor, University of Michigan, School of Social Work, Postal: Assistant Professor, University of Michigan, School of Social Work

Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 2009, vol. 28, issue 3, 417-439

Abstract: The hypothesis that marriage increases men's earnings has contributed to legislative support for the Healthy Marriage Initiative (HMI). However, previous studies of this phenomenon have not controlled for many relevant characteristics that select men into marriage, nor have they focused on low-income, unmarried fathers-the population targeted by HMI. We use the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, which measures many previously unobserved confounders, to test for a relationship between marriage and earnings. We use a variety of analytic strategies to control for selection (including differencing and propensity scores) and find no evidence of an effect of transitions to marriage on the earnings of unmarried fathers that differs from zero, either for the full sample or subsamples defined by race-ethnic category and baseline cohabitation status. © 2009 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.

Date: 2009
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:jpamgt:v:28:y:2009:i:3:p:417-439

DOI: 10.1002/pam.20439

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