Scientific basis for the greenhouse effect

Gordon J. Macdonald

Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 1987, vol. 7, issue 3, 425-444

Abstract: Carbon dioxide and a wide variety of other industrial gases, including methane, ozone, and feron, trap a portion of the earth's thermal radiation that would otherwise escape into space. This radiative trapping of energy produces the heating of the atmosphere popularly labeled the greenhouse effect. Detailed observations from remote stations show that the carbon dioxide concentration of the atmosphere has increased from 316 parts per million by volume (ppmv) in 1958 to 350 ppmv in 1986. The exponential growth in carbon dioxide levels parallels the increased worldwide use of carbon-based fuels. Methane concentrations are increasing at a rate of one to two percent per year, lower atmosphere ozone at a somewhat smaller rate, and freons at a current rate of five percent per year. Calculations of the expected increase in the average temperature of the earth's surface since 1900 lead to a value of about 0.5 °C if the moderating effect of the earth's oceans is taken into account. Calculations are based on models that range in complexity from simple energy balance considerations to detailed three-dimensionsl calculations that strain the capacity of current digital computers. Detailed analysis of tens of millions of surface-temperature observations indicate an average warming of about 0.5 °C since the turn of the century and a greater warming of 2 °C in high latitudes. Major climatic shifts can be expected as the warming proceeds at an increasing pace. The rate of anticipated warming is historically unpercedented.

Date: 1987
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/3323722 Link to full text; subscription required (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:jpamgt:v:7:y:1987:i:3:p:425-444

DOI: 10.2307/3323722

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Journal of Policy Analysis and Management from John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().