A duel complicated by false targets and uncertainty as to opponent type

Calvin W. Sweat

Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, 1972, vol. 19, issue 2, 355-367

Abstract: An attacker, being one of two types, initiates an attack at some time in the interval [‐T, 0]. The a priori probabilities of each type are known. As time elapses the defender encounters false targets which occur according to a known Poisson process and which can be properly classified with known probability. The detection and classification probabilities for each type attacker are given. If the defender responds with a weapon at the time of attack, he survives with a probability which depends on the number of weapons in his possession and on attacker type. If he does not respond, his survival probability is smaller. These probabilities are known, as well as the current number of weapons in the defender's possession. They decrease as the number of weapons decreases. The payoff is the defender's survival probability. An iterative system of first‐order differential equations is derived whose unique solution V1(t),V2(t),…,Vk(t) is shown to be the value of the game at time t, when the defender has 1, 2,…, k,… weapons, respectively. The optimal strategies are determined. Limiting results are obtained as t→‐∞, while the ratio of the number of weapons to the expected number of false targets remaining is held constant.

Date: 1972
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:navlog:v:19:y:1972:i:2:p:355-367

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