Confidence bounds and propagation of uncertainties in system availability and reliability computations

L. Shaw and M. L. Shooman

Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, 1976, vol. 23, issue 4, 673-685

Abstract: This paper develops bounds on the uncertainties in system availabilities or reliabilities which have been computed from structural (series, parallel, etc.) relations among uncertain subsystem availabilities or reliabilities. It is assumed that the highly available (reliable) subsystems have been tested or simulated to determine their unavailabilities (unreliabilities) to within some small percentages of uncertainty. It is shown that series, parallel and r out of n structures which are nominally highly available will have unavailability uncertainties whose percentages errors are of the same order as the subsystem uncertainties. Thus overall system analysis errors, even for large systems, are of the same order of magnitude as the uncertainties in the component probabilities. Both systematic (bias type) uncertainties and independent random uncertainties are considered.

Date: 1976
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1002/nav.3800230412

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:navlog:v:23:y:1976:i:4:p:673-685

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Naval Research Logistics Quarterly from John Wiley & Sons
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().