Extrapolation of the mean lifetime of a large population from its preliminary survival history

J. Keilson and U. Sumita

Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, 1983, vol. 30, issue 3, 509-535

Abstract: A large population of independent identical units having finite mean lifetime T is observed. From the history A(y) of cumulative arrivals and the history B(y) of cumulative removals in the interval 0 ≦ y ≦ τ one must predict at time τ the desired T. Two lifetime predictors X(τ) and Y(τ) and related simple predictors obtained from A(y) and B(y) are shown to converge to T with a rate of convergence dependent on the structure of the failure rate function of the units. This dependence is studied theoretically and numerically.

Date: 1983
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https://doi.org/10.1002/nav.3800300316

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:navlog:v:30:y:1983:i:3:p:509-535

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