The stochastic duel with time‐dependent hit probabilities

C. J. Ancker

Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, 1984, vol. 31, issue 3, 363-371

Abstract: The fundamental stochastic duel considers two opponents who fire at each other at either random continuous or fixed‐time intervals with a constant hit probability on each round fired. Each starts with an unloaded weapon, unlimited ammunition, and unlimited time. The first to hit wins. In this article we extend the theory to the case where hit probabilities are functions of the time since the duel began. First, the marksman firing at a passive target is considered and the characteristic function of the time to a hit is developed. Then, the probability of a given side winning the duel is derived. General solutions for a wide class of hit probability functions are derived. Specific examples of both the marksman and the duel problem are given.

Date: 1984
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https://doi.org/10.1002/nav.3800310303

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