A model for evaluating the output of intelligence systems

W. V. Caldwell, C. H. Coombs, R. M. Thrall, M. S. Schoeffler and Murray Hill

Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, 1961, vol. 8, issue 1, 25-40

Abstract: A large‐scale experiment was designed to obtain the intuitive evaluations of intelligence reports from a large group of experienced Army officers. An interval scale of quality of the intelligence reports was constructed with a view to providing some mathematical models that describe in a simple fashion the way in which the components of an intelligence report combine to determine the value of the report. The results of the study indicate (a) that officers judge such intelligence reports consistently, (b) that they use criteria in judging intelligence estimates different from those they use in judging courses of action, and (c) that the judgments depend to some extent on the combat experience of the officer. The different techniques of obtaining rating scales were found to produce essentially the same results.

Date: 1961
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https://doi.org/10.1002/nav.3800080103

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:navlog:v:8:y:1961:i:1:p:25-40

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