The effect of crowd density on the expected number of casualties in a suicide attack

Moshe Kress

Naval Research Logistics (NRL), 2005, vol. 52, issue 1, 22-29

Abstract: Utilizing elementary geometric and probability considerations, we estimate the effect of crowd blocking in suicide bombing events. It is shown that the effect is quite significant. Beyond a certain threshold, the expected number of casualties decreases with the number of people in the arena. The numerical results of our model are consistent with casualty data from suicide bombing events in Israel. Some operational insights are discussed. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005.

Date: 2005
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:navres:v:52:y:2005:i:1:p:22-29

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