Lanchester models and the battle of Britain

Ian R. Johnson and Niall J. MacKay

Naval Research Logistics (NRL), 2011, vol. 58, issue 3, 210-222

Abstract: We fit deterministic generalized Lanchester models to daily sortie and loss data from the Battle of Britain. The best fit for the period 14th August to 30th October 1940 is δB ∼ G1.2, δG ∼ G0.9, where B and G are RAF Fighter Command and Luftwaffe sortie numbers, and δB and δG are daily loss numbers, respectively. The data naturally divide into two phases, with losses (as a proportion of overall sortie numbers) much reduced after 15th September. Fits were generally better for the first phase than for the second, and for British losses than for German; in every case the dependence on G is stronger than that on B. Days with higher sortie numbers on average favored the Luftwaffe, whereas the loss‐ratio was not significantly dependent on the force ratio. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 58: 210–222, 2011

Date: 2011
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:navres:v:58:y:2011:i:3:p:210-222

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