Improving Permafrost Mapping in Southern Tibetan Plateau Using Machine Learning and Rock Glacier Inventory

Dezhao Yan, Min Feng, Zhongyi Hu, Jinhao Xu and Xin Li

Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, 2025, vol. 36, issue 2, 230-244

Abstract: As a key component of the cryosphere, permafrost is sensitive to climate change, but mapping permafrost, especially in the Tibetan Plateau, has been challenging due to the heterogeneous mountainous landscape and limited representativeness of ground observations. Using 155 compiled ground observations and more than 20,000 rock glacier records, we developed a machine learning model to map the distribution of permafrost and produce an improved permafrost zonation index (PZI) map. The model was applied by incorporating several control variables, including terrain (elevation and relief), soil (bulk density, clay, coarse fragments, sand, and silt), and temperature (MAAT, FDD, and TDD) to estimate the PZI at a 1‐km resolution in the southern Tibetan Plateau. Excluding glaciers and lakes, the area of permafrost estimated by the new map is approximately 103.5 × 103 km2, accounting for 47.8% of the total area of the region. The result was assessed with various datasets and compared with existing permafrost maps and achieved higher accuracy compared with previous studies. The overall classification accuracy was 96.1% in high plain areas and 84.4% in mountain areas. The results demonstrated the substantial potential for improving mapping permafrost and understanding the periglacial environment with rock glacier inventories and machine learning, especially in complex terrain and climate.

Date: 2025
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https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.2266

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:perpro:v:36:y:2025:i:2:p:230-244

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