Achieving Sustainable Development: Bridging Economic Growth and Environmental Resilience Through EKC and LCC

Qiang Wang, Yujie Zhang and Rongrong Li

Sustainable Development, 2025, vol. 33, issue 5, 7629-7656

Abstract: This study investigates the interplay between economic growth and environmental sustainability by exploring the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) and Environmental Load Capacity Curve (LCC) hypotheses on a global scale. Leveraging panel data from 146 countries spanning 1990–2022, the research employs advanced econometric models to analyze how key factors—renewable energy consumption, technological innovation, trade openness, and population aging—affect carbon emissions and ecological resilience. The results confirm the validity of the EKC and LCC hypotheses by carbon emissions follow an inverted U‐shaped trajectory with per capita GDP, reaching an inflection point at $9239.99; the load capacity factor demonstrates a U‐shaped relationship, rebounding at $27,345.71 per capita GDP; additionally, renewable energy is shown to have a long‐run positive impact on environmental load resilience, while its carbon reduction effect is stronger for countries in earlier stages of economic development (the effects are −0.1492, −0.1332, and −0.8034). Technological innovation, although negatively correlated with load capacity before the EKC inflection point, contributes positively to environmental improvement after this point. Trade openness demonstrates a stronger emission‐reducing effect in advanced economies (the effects are −0.2014 and −0.1252), while the influence of population aging is heterogeneous—enhancing environmental outcomes in strongly decoupled countries but exacerbating degradation in non‐decoupled regions. Moreover, the research confirms the existence of a lagged coupling relationship between the inflection points of the EKC and the LCC. The decline in carbon emissions after the EKC inflection point will promote the emergence of the LCC inflection point. Finally, these targeted strategies are proposed.

Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:sustdv:v:33:y:2025:i:5:p:7629-7656

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