Dialogue or Decision‐Making: Exploring the Role of Modelling in Adaptation Pathways Development and Its Links With Participation

Wouter Julius Smolenaars, Raffaele Vignola, Wout Sommerauer, Spyridon Paparrizos, Maria del Pozo Garcia and Bregje van der Bolt

Sustainable Development, 2025, vol. 33, issue S1, 1537-1550

Abstract: Adaptation pathways are an emerging planning approach to manage the long‐term uncertainties related to climatic and environmental changes. Although models are widely used in pathways processes, their specific application and contribution throughout pathways development remain poorly understood. This study presents a scoping review that characterizes the role of modeling in pathways development and explores its link with participation. The findings reveal that process‐based simulation models are used most, mainly to provide detailed scientific information on system dynamics, future uncertainties, and the performance of adaptation strategies. This type of modeling is expert‐driven and is therefore prevalent in technocratic pathways processes with limited stakeholder participation. In contrast, participatory pathways development frequently relies on decision‐support and conceptual models, which serve as interactive tools to gather knowledge and enhance dialogue and social learning among stakeholders. These models prioritize the communication of ideas among participants over accurate system representation and detailed scientific insights. This study consequently reveals a trade‐off, with more intensive and technically detailed model use predominantly found in pathways development processes featuring limited stakeholder participation, and vice versa. Future research should explore how quantitative modeling of uncertainties can be integrated more effectively into participatory pathways processes to better address complex adaptation challenges.

Date: 2025
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https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.70081

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:sustdv:v:33:y:2025:i:s1:p:1537-1550

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