Extending the START framework: Computation of optimal capability development portfolios using a decision theory approach

A. Elfes, C. R. Weisbin, R. Manvi, V. Adumitroaie, W. P. Lincoln and K. Shelton

Systems Engineering, 2006, vol. 9, issue 4, 331-357

Abstract: Space program managers and decision‐makers must make strategic investment decisions regarding R&D on technologies, capabilities, missions, and programs, while under a variety of constraints. These constraints include limited budgets, infrastructure, and time restrictions, as well as programmatic and institutional priorities. Acquiring, analyzing, and synthesizing the large amount of information required for a rational decision poses an enormous challenge. To address these challenges, the authors have developed analytical methodologies and computational systems to support strategic decision‐makers within NASA: the START (STrategic Assessment of Risk and Technology) approach, a methodology allowing the quantitative assessment of technologies, capabilities, missions, scenarios and programs in support of human decision‐makers. Supporting the START methodology, new analytical formulations were added, addressing additional decision issues intrinsic to space programs. These include: (1) a utility‐based assessment of capabilities and technologies; (2) modeling dependencies between capabilities and/or between capabilities and programmatic goals; (3) modeling the impact of partial versus complete funding; (4) compute temporally optimal portfolios for staging funding over time; and (5) provide a robustness assessment of the analysis results. We also assess the results, and present sensitivity analysis procedures for validating the START results. We present two case studies; a study conducted for NASA's Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD), and an analysis for NASA's Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD). We conclude with the next steps in the evolution of the START methodology. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.* Syst Eng 9:331–357, 2006

Date: 2006
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