Immigration and Unemployment: New Evidence From 13 European OECD Countries

Katsuya Ito

World Affairs, 2025, vol. 188, issue 3

Abstract: This study employs annual panel data from 13 OECD countries in Europe spanning the period 2001–2019 to empirically examine the link between immigrants and unemployment. The PMG method, which can be applied in both stationary and nonstationary variables, is used for this estimation. The results provide evidence that an influx of immigrants has a negative effect on the rate of unemployment for native‐born workers, whereas it is positively associated with that of foreign‐born workers in the long term. However, the results are mixed in the short term. It is further found that the adjustment speed to long‐run equilibrium is relatively slow, suggesting the need for active labor market policies. 本研究利用2001年至2019年期间欧洲13个经合组织(OECD)国家的年度面板数据, 实证检验了移民与失业之间的联系。本研究采用PMG方法进行估计, 该方法能用于平稳变量和非平稳变量。结果表明, 移民涌入对本土出生工人的失业率产生负向影响, 而长期来看与外国出生工人的失业率呈积极相关。然而, 短期结果喜忧参半。此外, 研究还发现, 向长期均衡的调整速度相对较慢, 因此需要采取积极的劳动力市场政策。 Este estudio utiliza datos de panel anuales de 13 países europeos de la OCDE, durante el período 2001‐2019, para examinar empíricamente la relación entre inmigrantes y desempleo. Para esta estimación se utiliza el método PMG, aplicable tanto a variables estacionarias como no estacionarias. Nuestros resultados evidencian que la afluencia de inmigrantes tiene un efecto negativo en la tasa de desempleo de los trabajadores autóctonos, mientras que a largo plazo se asocia positivamente con la de los trabajadores extranjeros. Sin embargo, los resultados son heterogéneos a corto plazo. Además, se observa que la velocidad de ajuste al equilibrio a largo plazo es relativamente lenta, lo que sugiere la necesidad de políticas activas del mercado laboral.

Date: 2025
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