Exploring the Dynamics of Social Policy Models: A Computer Simulation of Long-term Unemployment

Georg Mueller
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Georg Mueller: Dept. of Social Work and Social Policy, University of Fribourg, Bonnesfontaines 11, CH-1700 Fribourg, Switzerland

Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), 2000, vol. 03, issue 01n04, 433-447

Abstract: This paper focuses on the use of computer models for making inferences about the effects of social policies. In order to improve the reliability of such inferences, the article proposes a new methodology which is based on the systematic search of model output which either confirms or falsifies the aforementioned inferences. The successful use of this new methodology is exemplified by the analysis of a simulation model which describes the dynamics of long-term unemployment.

Keywords: Computer assisted inferencing; K. Popper; verification and falsification of propositions; optimization techniques; social policy models; long-term unemployment; labor queues; social discrimination; Switzerland (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2000
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DOI: 10.1142/S0219525900000303

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