CYCLICAL BEHAVIOR OF PRICES IN THE G7 COUNTRIES THROUGH WAVELET ANALYSIS

Mauro Gallegati, Antonio Palestrini () and Milena Petrini ()
Additional contact information
Milena Petrini: Department of Mathematical Sciences, Università Politecnica delle Marche, Ancona, Italy

Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), 2008, vol. 11, issue 01, 119-130

Abstract: Our analysis, conducted using the GDP and the GDP deflator time series (OECD source; 1960–2001) for the G7 countries, shows the robustness of the negative covariance between the GDP and its deflator, but only over long run horizons. Through wavelet decomposition we evaluate the price–output relationship at different time scales, where most countries reveal similar patterns. More precisely, at short time scales a positive correlation seems to appear whereas, and consequently, a regime switch occurs at a time horizon of about two years leading to a negative relationship for higher horizons. These results seem to suggest that the negative or acyclical relationship usually found after the 1960s may be the composite effect of different time scale correlations, where the four-year-horizon component seems to have the greatest influence. In particular for Canada, France, and Italy we observe something like a rotation of the price–output relationship between the countercyclical and the procyclical relationship. Finally, our analysis shows that even the relationship between the two series does not seem to be very stable regarding the lead and lag structure also. The phase is nonlinear for all the countries and, consequently, the group delay (the lag) is not constant. In particular, looking at the time scale we observe an inversion of the local monotonicity at the frequency of about 0.3–0.35 for all G7 countries.

Keywords: Price–output relationship; discrete wavelet transform (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0219525908001520
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wsi:acsxxx:v:11:y:2008:i:01:n:s0219525908001520

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from

DOI: 10.1142/S0219525908001520

Access Statistics for this article

Advances in Complex Systems (ACS) is currently edited by Frank Schweitzer

More articles in Advances in Complex Systems (ACS) from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Tai Tone Lim ().