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DYNAMICS IN AN SIR MODEL WHEN VACCINATION DEMAND FOLLOWS PRIOR LEVELS OF DISEASE PREVALENCE

John Eckalbar (), Pete Tsournos () and Walter L. Eckalbar ()
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Pete Tsournos: Department of Economics, California State University, 1st and Normal Chico, CA 95926-0430, United States
Walter L. Eckalbar: #x2020;Department of Bioengineering and Therapeutic Sciences, University of California, San Francisco, 1550, 4th Street, Bldg 19B, San Francisco CA 94158, United States

Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), 2015, vol. 18, issue 07n08, 1-27

Abstract: This paper investigates an susceptible, infectious, recovered (SIR) model with childhood vaccination demand modeled as a function of prior levels of disease prevalence. Stability conditions for endemic and disease-free equilibria are uncovered, and both Hopf bifurcations and chaos are found with certain constellations of parameter values. Policy interventions directed toward increasing vaccination are explored, and the implied magnitudes of the external benefit of vaccination are modeled.

Keywords: Vaccination; SIR; delay; stability; chaos; bifurcation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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DOI: 10.1142/S0219525915500216

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