RISK AWARENESS TO EPIDEMIC INFORMATION AND SELF-RESTRICTED TRAVEL BEHAVIOR ON CONTAGION

Wen-Juan Xu, Chen-Yang Zhong, Hui-Fen Ye, Rong-Da Chen, Tian Qiu, Fei Ren and Li-Xin Zhong
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Wen-Juan Xu: School of Law, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou 310018, P. R. China
Chen-Yang Zhong: Department of Statistics, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305-4065, USA
Hui-Fen Ye: School of Accounting, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou 310018, P. R. China
Rong-Da Chen: School of Finance and Coordinated Innovation Center of Wealth Management and Quantitative Investment, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou 310018, P. R. China
Tian Qiu: School of Information Engineering, Nanchang Hangkong University, Nanchang 330063, P. R. China
Fei Ren: School of Business and Research Center for Econophysics, East China University of Science and Technology, Shanghai 200237, P. R. China
Li-Xin Zhong: School of Finance and Coordinated Innovation Center of Wealth Management and Quantitative Investment, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou 310018, P. R. China

Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), 2021, vol. 24, issue 01, 1-20

Abstract: By incorporating delayed epidemic information and self-restricted travel behavior into the SIS model, we have investigated the coupled effects of timely and accurate epidemic information and people’s sensitivity to the epidemic information on contagion. In the population with only local random movement, whether the epidemic information is delayed or not has no effect on the spread of the epidemic. People’s high sensitivity to the epidemic information leads to their risk aversion behavior and the spread of the epidemic is suppressed. In the population with only global person-to-person movement, timely and accurate epidemic information helps an individual cut off the connections with the infected in time and the epidemic is brought under control in no time. A delay in the epidemic information leads to an individual’s misjudgment of who has been infected and who has not, which in turn leads to rapid progress and a higher peak of the epidemic. In the population with coexistence of local and global movement, timely and accurate epidemic information and people’s high sensitivity to the epidemic information play an important role in curbing the epidemic. A theoretical analysis indicates that people’s misjudgment caused by the delayed epidemic information leads to a higher encounter probability between the susceptible and the infected and people’s self-restricted travel behavior helps reduce such an encounter probability. A functional relation between the ratio of infected individuals and the susceptible-infected encounter probability has been found.

Keywords: Epidemic information; delayed time; risk awareness; SIS model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1142/S0219525921500016

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